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NBA: Top Weekend Power Trends 3/27-3/29

NBA: Top Weekend Power Trends 3/27-3/29

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NBA: Top Weekend Power Trends 3/27-3/29


2009-03-27

The picture of which 16 teams will be playing in the postseason is becoming more and more clear, however, where those teams will be seeded and who they will be matching up with in round one in their respective conferences is far from determined. In fact, at this point, it is a jumbled mess. In the East, there are three separate ties for positions among the eight seeds, with only Cleveland at #1, and Atlanta at #4 in comfortable enough position to start preparing accordingly. In the West, the Lakers have wrapped up the top spot, but seeds two through eight are separated by a mere four games. With so much yet to be determined, the action this week figures to have a big impact. We’re here to take a look at the weekend’s games, plus offer up some of the Top StatFox Power Trends for your betting usage.

The Friday betting board is the biggest of the weekend, with 10 games to choose from. The most intriguing of those contests features Boston visiting Atlanta, in a rematch of last year’s thrilling first round playoff series. The Hawks have been hot, aided by an unusual home-loaded schedule stretch, winning eight of their last 10 games while going 9-1 ATS. Boston has slipped to the #3 spot in the East by virtue of going just 8-7 in their last 15 games. The Celtics have won both head-to-head meetings this season, but they have been close (1 & 3 points) with the Hawks covering the number each time. Elsewhere on Friday, two of the teams gathered in that tight cluster in the West will meet when Dallas hosts Denver. Right now, Dallas is #8 and Denver is #4, but things can change very quickly when the teams are as close together as they are now. The Nuggets have beaten the Mavericks four straight times and are 3-1 ATS in that span. The UNDER is on a 17-7 run in the L24 head-to-head games played in Dallas.

As usual the Saturday schedule is one not loaded with compelling games. In fact, none of the eight scheduled affairs features two teams in playoff position. The one game that has any drama to it comes from Utah, where the desperate Phoenix Suns visit the Jazz. Phoenix goes into the weekend trailing the #8 spot in the West by 3-1/2 games. They were blown out by 20 at Portland on Thursday, and with just 10 games left in their season, anything shy of 8-9 wins will not get it done. Unfortunately, in their last two trips to Utah, they were beaten by 12 & 22 points. Utah is again a sterling 30-6 SU & 21-15 ATS at home in ’08-09, but with fellow playoff competitors Houston, Portland, and Denver all playing as hosts Sunday, the Jazz need to keep pace.

On Sunday, ABC is back at it with a doubleheader of games starting at 1:00 PM ET. In the first one, Dallas travels to Cleveland hoping to hand Lebron & Co. just their second home loss of the season. That’s right, Cleveland is 33-1 SU & 22-12 ATS at home this season, and the Cavs have taken control of the East playoff race by winning their L10 games as of Friday. However, with just a 3-7 ATS mark in that span, they are also showing signs of vulnerability. In the last afternoon game, the Hawks make a rare national TV appearance when they host the Lakers to end a stretch of 11 home games in 12 outings. Atlanta has been impressive during the stretch, lifting its overall home mark to 28-8 on the season. Still, Kobe Bryant loves these chances to strut his stuff in front of the nation. This will be the Lakers’ fifth game on a 7-game road swing. The TV action doesn’t stop there however, as ESPN brings a key showdown between San Antonio and New Orleans at 8:05 PM ET. The Spurs continue to lead the tight Southwest Division race but the Hornets will be in a nice spot of 17-4 ATS at home when revenging a same season loss.

Now, here’s a look at some of this weekend’s Top StatFox Power Trends that will be in play.

Friday, 3/27/2009
(853) MILWAUKEE vs. (854) ORLANDO
ORLANDO is 20-7 UNDER (+12.3 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 99+ PPG this season. The average score was ORLANDO 103.8, OPPONENT 95.3 - (Rating = 2*)

(859) BOSTON vs. (860) ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) at home vs. good 3PT shooting teams (>=36%) in 2nd half of the L2 seasons. The average score was ATLANTA 101.1, OPPONENT 95.5 - (Rating = 2*)

(863) LA LAKERS vs. (864) NEW JERSEY
LA LAKERS are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games vs. poor defensive teams (FG% >=46%) in 2nd half of L2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 114.4, OPPONENT 103.1 - (Rating = 2*)

(867) LA CLIPPERS vs. (868) SAN ANTONIO
LA CLIPPERS are 6-20 ATS (-16 Units) vs. good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots in 2nd half of L2 seasons. The average score was LA CLIPPERS 95.5, OPPONENT 112 - (Rating = 2*)

Saturday, 3/28/2009
(503) DETROIT vs. (504) WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) vs. teams who are called for 21 or less fouls/game - 2nd half of this season. The average score was WASHINGTON 91.1, OPPONENT 105.4 - (Rating = 4*)

(505) NEW YORK vs. (506) CHARLOTTE
CHARLOTTE is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) vs. poor rebounding teams outrebounded by 3+ RPG game - 2nd half of this season. The average score was CHARLOTTE 103.3, OPPONENT 92.9 - (Rating = 2*)

(507) MILWAUKEE vs. (508) MIAMI
MILWAUKEE is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) revenging a close loss vs opponent of 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The average score was MILWAUKEE 95.7, OPPONENT 103.2 - (Rating = 2*)

(515) MEMPHIS vs. (516) PORTLAND
MEMPHIS is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) against Northwest division opponents this season. The average score was MEMPHIS 94.9, OPPONENT 104.9 - (Rating = 2*)

Sunday, 3/29/2009
(705) CHICAGO vs. (706) TORONTO
TORONTO is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) vs. good 3PT shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. The average score was TORONTO 97.2, OPPONENT 101.5 - (Rating = 2*)

(707) NEW JERSEY vs. (708) MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) at home in non-conference games this season. The average score was MINNESOTA 95.6, OPPONENT 102.8 - (Rating = 2*)

(709) PHILADELPHIA vs. (710) DETROIT
DETROIT is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) on Sunday games this season. The average score was DETROIT 87.2, OPPONENT 96.8 - (Rating = 3*)

(717) PHOENIX vs. (718) SACRAMENTO
PHOENIX is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) vs. poor passing teams, averaging <=20 assists/game this season. The average score was PHOENIX 103.6, OPPONENT 106.2 - (Rating = 4*)


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